课题研究了西北内陆三省两区(陕西省、甘肃省、青海省、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区)“十三五”期间的铁路、公路建设规划，计算了规划方案的投资成本，定量分析了基础设施建
设对经济增长和区域发展的拉动作用。

章 引言 ·····································································1
1.1 “现代丝绸之路”交通基础设施建设问题的缘由 ···········2
1.2 研究交通基础设施建设的意义 ···········································6
1.2.1 理论意义 ·············································································6
1.2.2 现实意义 ·············································································8
1.3 篇章安排 ···············································································9
1.3.1 研究思路 ·············································································9
1.3.2 篇章结构 ···········································································10
第2章 “丝绸之路”新旧解读 ······································13
2.1 引言 ·····················································································14
2.2 起源：古代丝绸之路 ·························································14
2.3 发展：现代丝绸之路 ·························································16
2.4 “现代丝绸之路”的提出背景 ·········································19
2.5 “现代丝绸之路”的本质 ·················································23
2.6 “现代丝绸之路”的重要基础：交通基础设施 ·············27
2.7 本章小结 ·············································································31
第3章 我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施现状分析
与综合评价 ························································33
3.1 引言 ·····················································································34


3.2 三省两区交通基础设施现状 ·············································34
3.1.1 陕西··················································································· 37
3.1.2 甘肃··················································································· 41
3.1.3 青海··················································································· 46
3.1.4 宁夏··················································································· 50
3.1.5 新疆··················································································· 54
3.3 三省两区现有交通基础设施评价 ·····································58
3.4 本章小结 ·············································································59
第4章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划目标 ··· 61
4.1 引言 ·····················································································62
4.2 三省两区的规划目标 ·························································63
4.2.1 陕西··················································································· 64
4.2.2 甘肃··················································································· 65
4.2.3 青海··················································································· 67
4.2.4 宁夏··················································································· 69
4.2.5 新疆··················································································· 71
4.3 本章小结 ·············································································74
第5章我国西北内陆三省两区交通基础设施规划 ········· 77
5.1 引言 ·····················································································78
5.2 影响交通基础设施规划的因素分析 ·································78
5.2.1 社会经济发展水平··························································· 79
5.2.2 交通运输需求··································································· 79
5.2.3 自然条件··········································································· 80
5.2.4 技术条件··········································································· 81
5.2.5 建设资金及发展政策······················································· 81
5.2.6 环保问题·········································································· 82

5.2.7 现有交通基础设施··························································· 82
5.3 交通基础设施规划的方法及工具 ·····································83
5.3.1 交通基础设施规划的基本步骤······································· 83
5.3.2 基于交通基础设施规划流程的具体方法和工具简介··· 85
5.4 交通规划方案评价 ·····························································93
5.5 三省两区现有公路与铁路规划方案及优化 ·····················95
5.5.1 三省两区现有“十三五”交通规划方案······················· 95
5.5.2 三省两区铁路及公路规划方案优化······························· 98
5.6 本章小结 ···········································································117
第6章交通基础设施投资成本测算······························119
6.1 引言 ···················································································120
6.2 交通基础设施成本测算方法及适用性分析 ···················121
6.2.1 工程项目投资成本测算的基本内容····························· 121
6.2.2 工程项目投资成本估算的基本方法····························· 122
6.3 三省两区整体规划方案投资成本测算 ···························138
6.3.1 铁路投资成本估算························································· 139
6.3.2 公路投资成本估算························································· 145
6.4 本章小结 ···········································································150
第7章交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究 ·················· 153
7.1 引言 ···················································································154
7.1.1 推动国家经济的增长····················································· 154
7.1.2 促进我国区域间协调发展············································· 155
7.1.3 加强国际间合作交流····················································· 156
7.2 相关的基础理论 ·······························································157
7.2.1 古典主义········································································· 157
7.2.2 凯恩斯主义····································································· 158

7.2.3 发展经济学····································································· 158
7.2.4 新经济增长理论····························································· 159
7.2.5 新经济地理学································································· 160
7.3
交通基础设施与经济增长的互动机制 ···························160
7.4
交通基础设施投资的经济效应研究 ·······························162
7.4.1 交通基础设施与经济增长的关系································· 163
7.4.2 交通基础设施的空间溢出效应····································· 177
7.4.3 交通基础设施对产业聚集的影响································· 186
7.4.4 交通基础设施对区域贸易的影响································· 194
7.4.5 交通基础设施建设对产业升级的影响························· 202
7.5
“十三五”期间交通基础设施建设对西北内陆三省两区
的经济效应分析 ································································206
7.6
本章小结 ···········································································211
第8章结论与展望 ······················································213
8.1
研究结论 ···········································································214
8.2
不足与展望 ·······································································219
附录A 新疆维吾尔自治区内交通点重要度 ·················· 222
附录B 宁夏回族自治区内交通点重要度 ····················· 230
附录C 青海省内交通点重要度··································· 237
附录
D
甘肃省内交通点重要度··································· 243
附录
E
三省两区内交通点重要度综合分析 ················· 250
附录
F
2014—2016年国家发改委有关铁路投资项目的
审批文件 ·························································260
参考文献······································································265